Europe has emerged at the forefront of a global surge in defence spending, driven by growing security concerns following Russia’s war in Ukraine. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), European military budgets rose by 17% in real terms last year, reaching $693 billion. Globally, defence expenditure climbed by 9.4% to an unprecedented $2.7 trillion — the highest level since the end of the Cold War.
The conflict in Ukraine remains the main catalyst for this shift, SIPRI reported. Russia’s military spending soared by 38% to $149 billion, exceeding 7% of its national economy, while Ukraine spent its entire tax revenue of $64.7 billion on its defence — the highest proportion of GDP (34%) devoted to military efforts worldwide.
Yet with the United States showing signs of reluctance to sustain its support for Ukraine, experts warn that European nations may have to shoulder more responsibility. Encouragingly, a report by think tank Bruegel suggested that the European Union could replace US support by spending just 0.12% more of its GDP.
Many analysts believe Europe is only at the beginning of a long-term rearmament cycle. "We will see further increases," said Seth Krummrich, a former US Army colonel and now vice president of security firm Global Guardian. He noted that Europe is increasingly recognizing the need to strengthen its own defences independently of guaranteed US support.
Recent EU decisions have paved the way for this transformation. In March, the bloc relaxed its fiscal deficit rules, freeing up an additional €650 billion ($740 billion) in defence spending. Germany, in particular, has been leading the way, increasing its defence budget by 28% after finally mobilizing a €100 billion ($113.5 billion) special fund announced in 2022. Every EU country except Malta raised its military spending last year.
However, experts warn that simply pouring money into defence will not instantly strengthen Europe’s security. Building military capabilities — training personnel, developing new technologies, and equipping forces — takes years. Germany’s promise to station a brigade in Lithuania, for example, won’t be fully realized until at least 2027.
"There’s a risk that by the time the major investments start delivering, the special financial exemptions currently allowed by the EU may have expired," cautioned Lukas Milevski, a lecturer at Leiden University.
Additionally, concerns persist about inefficiencies. Europe, like the US, faces issues of redundant defence projects as different countries vie for dominance in equipment production, from tanks to missile systems. Krummrich suggested that the EU must avoid squabbling over outdated technologies and instead invest in cutting-edge innovations, especially as the war in Ukraine has demonstrated the rising importance of drones and autonomous weapons.
Still, some experts argue that Europe cannot afford to pursue a completely independent defence strategy. Hugo Bromley of Cambridge University’s Centre for Geopolitics emphasized the importance of global cooperation, especially with allies like the US, Australia, and Canada, to build the advanced military capabilities needed for future conflicts — particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
Amid all the spending, the reality on the ground in Ukraine remains grim. The front lines have largely stagnated, with a growing reliance on poorly trained conscripts and continued high casualty rates. Krummrich warned that no amount of money would likely lead to a decisive breakthrough, calling the war a "meat grinder" and predicting that further investment could simply prolong the suffering.
Despite the dramatic rise in defence budgets, Europe’s path to a more secure future appears fraught with difficult decisions — and the understanding that rebuilding military strength is about far more than just writing bigger cheques.
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